Western media, from either ignorance, malice, or a combination of both, constantly carry China’s water by repeating CCP propaganda with no extra research or questioning of any kind. There are a couple outlets like Bloomberg that will sometimes do real journalism on this topic, but even that is few and far between.
Do you think western media would do the same for the rival party within their own country? I think we all know the answer to that. Let alone an enemy dictatorship state. It’s equivalent to taking North Korea at their word, but we act like it’s normal. Each media outlet uses another article as the source, which references another article, and this goes on until you realize the original source is almost always the Chinese government themselves.
It’s a little better now that China being our adversary/enemy isn’t a partisan issue in the United States anymore, but it’s still pretty bad. There is very little genuine original investigative reporting done on China, so most of the media still simply repeats their propaganda.
This is the only paragraph I will mention demographics in this entire essay, but keep in mind that this issue alone makes it basically impossible for China to ever become the world’s most dominant power. China has the most rapidly declining age demographics of any nation in recorded history and they have no immigration. Their population could be under 650 million by 2050. In contrast, the three best demographics in the advanced world arguably are The United States, New Zealand, and France.
Naive western politicians have let China grow and integrate with western economies up until now in hopes that they would eventually democratize. This era is over. We were already slowly moving in this direction, but COVID supercharged it.
One thing people seem to forget is that the only reason China was ever able to grow in the first place was because the United States Navy provided protection and the US also kept the rest of Southeast Asia off their back, especially Japan. Essentially, China was only able to grow under a special baby playpen environment created by the United States. To pretend that China would be the one benefiting from this environment going away is completely asinine.
REALITY: China is the nation most dependent on globalization, and they will be the hardest hit by de-globalization. Anyone that tells you otherwise is most likely just working backwards from their bias. China is the most common subject that “experts” will just straight up parrot propaganda with zero research just because it fits their narrative.
The United States will be the least negatively affected by de-globalization and it’s not even close in my opinion. The more complex the products you need/want, the more trading partners you generally need. While some of the far east might be cut off from the West, the United States will still have dozens of great long term trading partners. China will have almost none comparatively, even most of Southeast Asia hates them. The partnerships they do have are flimsy to say the least.
BRICS is only an earth shaking partnership inside internet armchair experts’ dreams. Two of the most important nations that are involved, India and Russia, are natural adversaries of China. BRICS is a weak temporary strategic allegiance to say the least.
On top of having the highest number of stable trading partners, the United States is the world’s largest producer of energy, food, technological innovation, and have even managed to stay the world’s second largest manufacturing power despite this being the most common criticism of the modern American economy.
REALITY: The only thing China is genuinely dominant in is low-end manufacturing, which is the easiest to move elsewhere; the on-shoring and friend-shoring is already happening fast. People are still thinking of things that applied a century ago. You can’t ignore technology/innovation curves. The next “industrial revolution” won’t be the same as the last one. That’s not how technological progress works.
The results prove this. The United States just practically destroyed much of China’s semiconductor industry with a super small softball policy they put in place that only applies to higher-end chips. Even in manufacturing, the thing they’re supposedly dominant in, can’t really be done with new and high-end technology. The small amount of manufacturing capability they do have in this area is completely reliant on western staff, equipment, and design (that they have no way of replacing… ever) from the west to operate.
People think that China being “the world’s factory” makes the United States more dependent on China, but in reality they have become more reliant on being able to trade freely with the West. China’s entire economy is based on being able to trade with the rest of the world with no security concerns, because of the US Navy. Despite this, arrogant internet armchair experts want you to believe that China has the leverage in this relationship.
China is a food, energy, and technology innovation importer, and by technology importer I mean they steal it. I want to remind readers that I’m not saying it’s going to be sunshine and rainbows in the US as this happens.
REALITY: China straight up lies about their GDP growth. We’ve known this for a while, but the evidence keeps stacking. People have done detailed analyses of the Chinese economy proving that their GDP is actually much lower. The most convincing of these studies was done based on satellite imagery, and the visualization is organized by how free a country is which makes it even more clear what’s going on here while also proving that the method is accurate.
REALITY: This one is probably the most hilarious and unrealistic claims made by the armchair experts on the internet. It’s one thing to say the Dollar will lose its status as the global reserve currency at some point, but to say that it will be replaced by the CNY is laughably dumb, and saying it will happen soon is even dumber.
A lot of it seems to have originated from gold bugs like Peter Schiff headline reading with no research. Over the past decade, western media publishes “China is buying gold” or whatever headlines every once in a while and the goldbugs run with it every time as if the CNY will one day be on a gold standard, despite China holding a pitifully small amount of gold to this day compared to the US. Claiming that the CNY will become the global reserve is as insane as a statement gets in the financial world.
Taken From Enodo Economics Report